There's a lot to this, and I think many observers pick one or two data points and shout that the sky is falling while missing most context. I like that you compare Hungary and Poland to France and Sweden. Also - Russia is probably the most conservative European country and it has been shrinking for decades. Japan has been shrinking for 13 years, and if you look at the ratio of working age to retirees, that ratio has been going on even longer. It is still a wealthy, powerful country.
But even more instructive is to look at cities. Cities do not have positive natural birth rates. All these demographic issues presented have been present in cities for decades, yet cities have become more and more prosperous.
Because most people are not even identifying the problem correctly, I trust them even less in their proposed solutions. I am not surprised that conservatives solutions to these 'problems' are all things that they would advocate for even without the 'problem'. Liberals are somewhat guilty of this too. I would be for a return of the expanded child tax credit, investment in early childhood care, and better government mandated paternity and maternity leaves even without any concern about birth rates.
The decision of whether or not to have kids and how many kids to have is perhaps the most personal and private and should be near absolutely respected. The irony is that the fearmongers pushing demographic disaster are doing the exact opposite - inserting themselves into people's personal lives.
I’m also somewhat worried about the implications for welfare systems in states with declining birth rates. Fewer births means fewer working-age people to support increasingly older (more costly) populations.
Whenever the subject of declining birth rates comes up, I can’t help but think of the long term consequences. Specifically with quality of life of childless aging people. at some point in the future, there is going to be a severe lack of caregivers. I also wonder if this problem will fall disproportionately on adults who didn’t have children.
The other thing that I expect to become a bigger and bigger issue is with women who missed their window. Not having kids seems like a great thing in your 20s and 30s. But then in your 40s…
I say this because my brother and his wife have spent over $100,000 for several failed instances of IVF. It’s really heartbreaking to see my sister-in-law going through this. But she is expressed that she is mad at herself because she didnt take the time earlier.
I also know several couples where the husband and wife have gone through something similar. These marriages ended up in divorce. And two instances, I know men in their 50s who have found younger women and had kids.
Regardless, there is going to be societal adaptation to the new normal. Perhaps we will just all be replaced by Mormons and the Amish.
I do think a lot of good points are made here; however I would still argue that the real issue in the past decade in particular is not that men are below-grade and subpar, but rather that "gutter ball men" are filtered by dating apps to the top. The way a dating app is structured provides them with two ways to make money - advertising and subscriptions. Advertising isn't much so the real money comes from subscriptions, which are almost pure margin. To get these things out to people, they have to provide some sort of benefit right? And they do! For the top tier of Tinder, you can pay an eye-watering $499.99 monthly to just bypass the match line altogether for a few people a week and have themselves heavily boosted otherwise.
It's self-evident that someone who would be willing to fork over that much money is not someone who's very appealing to women, at least not at first. So you get a situation where the least desirable, creepiest, and most sexist men are pushed up to the top artificially and women see them disproportionately. Unlike more desirable men, they also don't leave the pool, so that adds to the difficulty of the situation. You just get more and more of these people collecting at the top over time; creating the expectation that most men are like this when it's really not the case so much as there needs to be some mechanism to remove these people from the system. The problem there is that it's highly financially beneficial to keep them in the system, so until some sort of external action is taken the dating-app marketplace will continue to have these people collect at the front
I dont know who is giving the goyim these ideas like falling birthrates is bad. Just replace your population with foreigners! And if your nation goes extinct, well, so what its just an economic zone, those foreigners dancing over the grave of your culture are just as good as you for me, the international capitalist. The goyim should learn to be appreciative of rootless internationals like us who conduct business here one day, there the other day. Open your borders, dilute your people. Also blame men, we cannot allow goyim men and women to get along, that is an oy vey level threat. Thank you Dworkin, Plaskow, Ginsburg, Goldman! Thank you Marx, thank you Soros.
No, la foto no la termino de entender, en cuanto a las tasas de natalidad y la disminución de las relaciones sexuales, creo que hay bancos de semen. Si quieren cumplir con alguna fuerza sobrenatural que las impulsa a gestar seres humanos, si los tipos somos unos cretinos, no veo tanto problema.
En cuanto al parón laboral que implica la gestación y los primeros años de vida de los hijos, eso el Estado del Bienestar lo podría resolver.
Entonces, por favor, dejen a los muchachos en paz, que hagan su vida, que estudien y trabajen pensando en hacerse un proyecto de vida acompañado por un robot o una mascota, alguna vez con una mujer o con lo que su deseo sexual le pida. Y ellas igual.
El Estado del bienestar se debe ocupar de la infancia, si los niños tienen padres, bien, sino, el Estado. Traer seres humanos sanos y libres.
Me tienen bastante harto todos, todas y todes. Feministas, machistas, cualquier reivindicación de una parte de la sociedad, parece excluyente. Clases sociales, antes, ahora la visión es construir identidades, grupos por género unos, por capacidad económica, otros. No se a quien se le ocurrió organizar la conversación pública así.
Espero que los seres humanos estudien y trabajen porque desean hacer alguna cosa, bien. Si la principal preocupación va ser si ganan más o menos que otros, creo que van a fracasar.
Elvis murió joven y Priscila los va enterrando a todos. Empiezan a aparecer divorcios interesantes donde ella le pasa un dinero a él.
No lo dicen nunca pero hay un poco de ley del embudo en las reivindicaciones de cualquier grupo.
Creo en la igualdad de oportunidades. Cuando las mujeres sepan que si se divorcian tienen que pasarle una pensión al ex, eso a mi me parece que va provocar una gran deserción al matrimonio.
No pensemos que solo es que son más exigentes y los señoritos más torpes, menos exigentes consigo mismos. La gente también observa las experiencias ajenas. Observaran a las mujeres pagando la pensión al ex. Ahí si que se acaba el matrimonio.
El banco de esperma como solución y como fuente de ingresos. El Estado como los abuelos cuidando de los nietos.
You forgot about the car seats. It's always the car seats. Oh yes, and Nimby. Everything is Nimby's fault. Incidentally this is both Yimby's and Nimby's fault!
There's a lot to this, and I think many observers pick one or two data points and shout that the sky is falling while missing most context. I like that you compare Hungary and Poland to France and Sweden. Also - Russia is probably the most conservative European country and it has been shrinking for decades. Japan has been shrinking for 13 years, and if you look at the ratio of working age to retirees, that ratio has been going on even longer. It is still a wealthy, powerful country.
But even more instructive is to look at cities. Cities do not have positive natural birth rates. All these demographic issues presented have been present in cities for decades, yet cities have become more and more prosperous.
Because most people are not even identifying the problem correctly, I trust them even less in their proposed solutions. I am not surprised that conservatives solutions to these 'problems' are all things that they would advocate for even without the 'problem'. Liberals are somewhat guilty of this too. I would be for a return of the expanded child tax credit, investment in early childhood care, and better government mandated paternity and maternity leaves even without any concern about birth rates.
The decision of whether or not to have kids and how many kids to have is perhaps the most personal and private and should be near absolutely respected. The irony is that the fearmongers pushing demographic disaster are doing the exact opposite - inserting themselves into people's personal lives.
I’m also somewhat worried about the implications for welfare systems in states with declining birth rates. Fewer births means fewer working-age people to support increasingly older (more costly) populations.
Thoughts on this?
Whenever the subject of declining birth rates comes up, I can’t help but think of the long term consequences. Specifically with quality of life of childless aging people. at some point in the future, there is going to be a severe lack of caregivers. I also wonder if this problem will fall disproportionately on adults who didn’t have children.
The other thing that I expect to become a bigger and bigger issue is with women who missed their window. Not having kids seems like a great thing in your 20s and 30s. But then in your 40s…
I say this because my brother and his wife have spent over $100,000 for several failed instances of IVF. It’s really heartbreaking to see my sister-in-law going through this. But she is expressed that she is mad at herself because she didnt take the time earlier.
I also know several couples where the husband and wife have gone through something similar. These marriages ended up in divorce. And two instances, I know men in their 50s who have found younger women and had kids.
Regardless, there is going to be societal adaptation to the new normal. Perhaps we will just all be replaced by Mormons and the Amish.
They have five kids by the way, so I did my part.
I do think a lot of good points are made here; however I would still argue that the real issue in the past decade in particular is not that men are below-grade and subpar, but rather that "gutter ball men" are filtered by dating apps to the top. The way a dating app is structured provides them with two ways to make money - advertising and subscriptions. Advertising isn't much so the real money comes from subscriptions, which are almost pure margin. To get these things out to people, they have to provide some sort of benefit right? And they do! For the top tier of Tinder, you can pay an eye-watering $499.99 monthly to just bypass the match line altogether for a few people a week and have themselves heavily boosted otherwise.
It's self-evident that someone who would be willing to fork over that much money is not someone who's very appealing to women, at least not at first. So you get a situation where the least desirable, creepiest, and most sexist men are pushed up to the top artificially and women see them disproportionately. Unlike more desirable men, they also don't leave the pool, so that adds to the difficulty of the situation. You just get more and more of these people collecting at the top over time; creating the expectation that most men are like this when it's really not the case so much as there needs to be some mechanism to remove these people from the system. The problem there is that it's highly financially beneficial to keep them in the system, so until some sort of external action is taken the dating-app marketplace will continue to have these people collect at the front
I dont know who is giving the goyim these ideas like falling birthrates is bad. Just replace your population with foreigners! And if your nation goes extinct, well, so what its just an economic zone, those foreigners dancing over the grave of your culture are just as good as you for me, the international capitalist. The goyim should learn to be appreciative of rootless internationals like us who conduct business here one day, there the other day. Open your borders, dilute your people. Also blame men, we cannot allow goyim men and women to get along, that is an oy vey level threat. Thank you Dworkin, Plaskow, Ginsburg, Goldman! Thank you Marx, thank you Soros.
No, la foto no la termino de entender, en cuanto a las tasas de natalidad y la disminución de las relaciones sexuales, creo que hay bancos de semen. Si quieren cumplir con alguna fuerza sobrenatural que las impulsa a gestar seres humanos, si los tipos somos unos cretinos, no veo tanto problema.
En cuanto al parón laboral que implica la gestación y los primeros años de vida de los hijos, eso el Estado del Bienestar lo podría resolver.
Entonces, por favor, dejen a los muchachos en paz, que hagan su vida, que estudien y trabajen pensando en hacerse un proyecto de vida acompañado por un robot o una mascota, alguna vez con una mujer o con lo que su deseo sexual le pida. Y ellas igual.
El Estado del bienestar se debe ocupar de la infancia, si los niños tienen padres, bien, sino, el Estado. Traer seres humanos sanos y libres.
Me tienen bastante harto todos, todas y todes. Feministas, machistas, cualquier reivindicación de una parte de la sociedad, parece excluyente. Clases sociales, antes, ahora la visión es construir identidades, grupos por género unos, por capacidad económica, otros. No se a quien se le ocurrió organizar la conversación pública así.
Espero que los seres humanos estudien y trabajen porque desean hacer alguna cosa, bien. Si la principal preocupación va ser si ganan más o menos que otros, creo que van a fracasar.
Elvis murió joven y Priscila los va enterrando a todos. Empiezan a aparecer divorcios interesantes donde ella le pasa un dinero a él.
No lo dicen nunca pero hay un poco de ley del embudo en las reivindicaciones de cualquier grupo.
Creo en la igualdad de oportunidades. Cuando las mujeres sepan que si se divorcian tienen que pasarle una pensión al ex, eso a mi me parece que va provocar una gran deserción al matrimonio.
No pensemos que solo es que son más exigentes y los señoritos más torpes, menos exigentes consigo mismos. La gente también observa las experiencias ajenas. Observaran a las mujeres pagando la pensión al ex. Ahí si que se acaba el matrimonio.
El banco de esperma como solución y como fuente de ingresos. El Estado como los abuelos cuidando de los nietos.
Es un futuro.
You forgot about the car seats. It's always the car seats. Oh yes, and Nimby. Everything is Nimby's fault. Incidentally this is both Yimby's and Nimby's fault!
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3665046
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/12/will-rinehart-on-yimby-and-sure-from-my-email.html#comments